Make Decision tree

Bill Holliday is not sure what he should do. He can build a quadplex (i.e., a building with four apartments), build a duplex, gather additional information, or simply do nothing.

If he gathers additional information, the results could be either favorable or unfavorable, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information.

• Bill believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be favorable.

• If the rental market is favorable, Bill will earn $15,000 with the quadplex or $5,000 with the duplex. Bill doesn’t have the financial resources to do both.

• With an unfavorable rental market, however, Bill could lose $20,000 with the quadplex or $10,000 with the duplex.

 

Without gathering additional information, Bill estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is 0.7.

A favorable report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9.

Furthermore, an unfavorable report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.4.

Of course, Bill could forget all of these numbers and do nothing.

What is your advice to Bill

 

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