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fleet planing (AVIATION)

fleet planing (AVIATION)

Instructions:

Consider the following fleet and expectations “British American Airways” (BAA), a hypothetical Heathrow based long-haul airline.
(Note that there are some similarities with Virgin Atlantic, but assume Virgin does not exist and do not use any data or information from Virgin).

Write a report answering all the questions set out below. Show any significant workings and assumptions.

Baseline Assumptions
BAA fleet in 2011
A/C Type Number Seats per a/c Average age(years)
zA340-300 3 290 15
A340-600 8 380 7
B747-400 6 410 11
Total 17

BAA capacity and traffic in 2011

Annual ASKs (mills) 25,000
Annual RPKs (mills) 20,000

Assume that, for 2011, each aircraft type had the same aircraft utilization.
Assume all ASKs are deployed on UK-USA routes, both for the base year and future years.

Questions
1. Look at the forecasts on the Boeing and Airbus web-sites and any other sources you think useful. Interpolate the forecasts, as necessary, for the years to 2016 and adjust them by your own calculations and judgment. Explain why you have chosen the growth rates you use.

2. Decide if you expect to increase, decrease or maintain market share and explain why you have chosen the figure you choose. Assume this airline is the only UK airline operating to the USA from Heathrow, other than British Airways, but the several USA airlines compete. BA has achieved Anti Trust Immunity with American Airlines and merged with Iberia. There has been an open skies agreement between Europe and the USA since March 2008. Assume BAA’s current market share is 20%.

3. Apply your growth rates and market share assumption to the baseline. Decide on the planning seat factor for 2016 and explain your decision. Then calculate the number of ASKs required in 5 years from the baseline (i.e. 2016).

4. Suggest how to change the fleet by 2016, using only types and models already in the fleet, to meet the capacity need. Explain your rationale for the option(s) you choose. Show your workings.

5. What aircraft types would you like to explore rather than stick with the type the airline already has? Why? What effect might these types have on your overall fleet plan? You do not need to rework the fleet plan in detail. What new issues might such changes raise?

 
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